Introduction.to.Stochastic.Processes.with.R
An introduction to stochastic processes through the use of RIntroduction to Stochastic Processes with R is an accessible and well-balanced presentation of the theory of stochastic processes, with an emphasis on real-world applications of probability theory in the natural and social sciences. The uINTRODUCTIONTO STOCHASTICPROCESSES WITH RINTRODUCTIONTO STOCHASTICPROCESSES WITH RROBERT P DOBROWWILEYCopyright o 2016 by John Wiley Sons, Inc. All rights reservedPublished by John Wiley Sons, Inc, Hoboken, New JerseyPublished simultaneously in CanadaNo part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form orby any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except aspermitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the priorwritten permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee tothe Copyright Clearance Center, Inc, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA,(978)750-8400, fax978)750-4470,oronthewebatwww.copyright.comRequeststothePublisherforpermissionshouldbe addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley sons, Inc, lll River Street, Hoboken, NJ07030,(201)748-6011,fax(201)748-6008,oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissionsLimit of liability/ Disclaimer of warranty While the publisher and author have used their best efforts inpreparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy orcompleteness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties ofmerchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by salesrepresentatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitablefor your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher norauthor shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited tospecial, incidental, consequential, or other damagesFor general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact ourCustomer Care Department within the United States at(800)762-2974, outside the United States at(317)572-3993 or fax(317)572-4002Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print maynot be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site atwww.wiley.comLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:Dobrow. Robert p. authorIntroduction to stochastic processes with r/ Robert P. Dobrowpages cmIncludes bibliographical references and indexISBN978-1-118-74065-1( cloth)1. Stochastic processes. 2. R( Computer program language)I. TitleQC20.7.S8D6320165192′302855133-dc232015032706Set in 10/12pt, Times-Roman by SPi Global, Chennai, IndiaPrinted in the united states of america1098765432112016To my familyCONTENTSPrefaceAcknowledgmentsList of Symbols and Notationabout the companion Website1 Introduction and review1.1 Deterministic and stochastic models. 11. 2 What is a Stochastic Process? 61. 3 Monte Carlo Simulation. 91.4 Conditional Probability, 101. 5 Conditional Expectation, 18Exercises. 342 Markov Chains: First Steps402.1 Introduction. 402.2 Markov Chain Cornucopia, 422.3 Basic Computations, 522. 4 Long-Term behavior-the Numerical evidence, 592.5 Simulation. 652.6 Mathematical Induction*. 68Exercises. 70CONTENTS3 Markov Chains for the long term763.1 Limiting Distrib763.2 Stationary Distribution, 803.3 Can you find the way to state a? 943.4 Irreducible markov Chains. 1033.5 Periodicity, 1063.6 Ergodic Markov Chains, 1093.7 Time Reversibility, 1143.8 Absorbing Chains, 1199 Regeneration and the strong markov property 1333.10 Proofs of limit Theorems*, 135Exercises. 1444 Branching processes1584.1 Introduction. 1584.2 Mean Generation Size. 1604.3 Probability Generating Functions, 1644.4 Extinction is Forever. 168Exercises. 1755 Markov Chain Monte Carlo1815.1 Introduction. 1815.2 Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm, 1875.3 Gibbs Sampler, 1975.4 Perfect Sampling*, 20.55.5 Rate of Convergence: the Eigenvalue Connection*, 2105.6 Card Shuffing and Total Variation Distance. 212Exercises. 2196 Poisson process2236.1 Introduction. 2236.2 Arrival. Interarrival Times. 2276.3 Infinitesimal Probabilities. 2346.4 Thinning, Superposition, 2386.5 Uniform Distribution. 2436.6 Spatial Poisson Process, 2496.7 Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process. 2536.8 Parting Paradox, 255Exercises. 2587 Continuous- Time markov Chains2657.1 Introduction. 265
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数据分析之电商客户评价数据分析
某知名电商拥有二十万条关于热水器的客户评价数据 ,希望能够从数据中,分析某一品牌的用户感情倾向,并详细分析该品牌产品的优缺点,进而提炼所有其他品牌热水器的卖点01项目背景02.产品销量统计03.海尔热水器情感分析04.其他品牌热水器卖点分析05小结:卖点综合分析06.数据来源及指标说明01项目背景★某知名电商拥有二十万条关于热水器的客户评价数据,希望能够从数据中,分析某一品牌的用户感情倾向,并详细分析该品牌产品的优缺点,进而提炼所有其他品牌热水器的卖点★网购大家电的行为日益成熟,及网店评价系统的日益完善,为我们提供了很好的数据积累★用前沿科技手段挖掘用户感情倾向,对生产和销售具有重要的指导意义01.项目背景02产品销量统计03.海尔热水器情感分析04.其他品牌热水器卖点分析05小结:卖点综合分析06.数据来源及指标说明02销量统计年至年总体销量如图,海尔销量约占总体的占了将近大半壁江山年销售汇总图表标题海尔·美的·万和c格兰仕··万家乐海尔美的万和格兰仕万家乐02销量统计年至年各年各品牌销售情况如图可以看出,海尔热水器于年早先于其他品牌进入网店销售,并且销量一直稳居前列年热水器各年销售统计■格兰仕■海尔■美的■万和■万家乐01.项目背景02.产品销量统计03海尔热水器情感分析04.其他品牌热水器卖点分析05小结:卖点综合分析06.数据来源及指标说明03海尔热水器客户情感分析★总体满意度指枋海尔品牌客户评价满意度星级海尔品牌客户评价比例差评差评★较差★★一般★★★很满意满意★★★★很满意★★★★★较差一般满意从图表中可以看出,客户对海尔热水器的综合评价较高,很满意的占45%,差评比率为差评·较差■一般■满意■很满意占24%,其中差评主要的原因为安装配件的费用03海尔热水器客户评价词频质量费用服务品牌加热安装费安装品牌从图表中可以看出,客户对于海保温便宜送货名牌外观实惠师傅大牌尔品牌的服务提及的频率较高配件性价比服务销售时可以着重强调服务及售后质量价格售后效果材料费发货水阀收费包装容量价钱保修温度价位质保出水量特价换货使用经济功品率质口口恒温性能效率插头耗电管道功能质量价格服务品牌
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